Yayi, Abiodun and the political nightmare awaiting PDP in Ogun
BY AROLE AZEEZ BELLO
There is an interesting political calculation taking place in Ogun State ahead of the 2027 general elections.
The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) appears determined to present the coming election as an opportunity to reclaim the state. But beneath the political noise lies a more difficult reality:
the road to defeating the APC in Ogun may be far more complicated than the opposition imagines.
Three factors stand out — the performance of Governor Dapo Abiodun, the growing political influence of Senator Solomon Olamilekan Adeola, popularly known as Yayi, and the APC’s formidable grassroots structure.
Together, they represent a serious obstacle for any opposition party hoping to take control of Ogun State.
The Abiodun Factor Cannot Be Wished Away
Politics is often about perception, but perception is usually influenced by what people can see.
Whatever criticisms may be levelled against the Dapo Abiodun administration, it would be difficult to argue that the government has been without achievements.
Across infrastructure, education, healthcare, agriculture, industrial development and investment promotion, the administration has embarked on projects and initiatives that have given the APC material with which to campaign.
Indeed, there is a strong argument within the APC that the Abiodun administration has performed exceptionally well and, in a number of critical areas, has surpassed the achievements of the two administrations immediately before it.
The opposition may disagree.
That is politics.
But disagreement does not erase projects, policies or the perception among sections of the electorate that Ogun has continued to move forward.
And that is precisely why the PDP cannot simply campaign on the narrative of “APC has failed.”
The electorate will inevitably ask:
“If APC has failed, what exactly will you do differently?” That question requires more than political rhetoric.
Then There Is Yayi
If Governor Abiodun’s record gives the APC something to campaign with, Yayi provides the party with something else that is equally important — political reach.
Senator Solomon Olamilekan Adeola is not an unknown quantity in Ogun politics.
He has built a recognisable political brand and cultivated relationships across different parts of the state. His supporters point to his accessibility, grassroots mobilisation and extensive political network as some of his greatest strengths.
Elections are not won in newspaper columns. They are won in wards, polling units, streets, communities and villages.
And this is where political structures become decisive.
Yayi’s political network therefore presents the PDP with a challenge that cannot be solved simply by attacking the APC.
The opposition must produce a political force capable of matching it.
The PDP’s Dangerous Assumption
Perhaps the greatest danger for the PDP is assuming that because some people are unhappy with aspects of government, those people will automatically vote for the opposition.
That is not how elections work.
Voters can complain about a government and still vote for it.
They can acknowledge shortcomings and still conclude that the government has done enough.
They can also compare the available alternatives and decide that the opposition has not provided a sufficiently convincing reason to change direction.
This is why the PDP needs more than criticism.
It needs a compelling alternative.
It needs a candidate with statewide appeal.
It needs an organisation capable of reaching voters at the grassroots.
And it needs a message capable of convincing undecided voters that changing government is worth the risk.
APC’s Advantage Is Bigger Than One Candidate.
It would also be a mistake to reduce the APC’s strength to Yayi alone. The party has the advantage of incumbency, an existing political structure and a governor whose administration has a record that can be taken to the electorate.
Yayi’s popularity simply adds another layer to that advantage.
The combination could be politically formidable.
An opposition party facing an unpopular government with a weak structure has a relatively straightforward task.
An opposition party facing an incumbent party with a defendable record, a strong grassroots organisation and a popular political figure has a much harder job.
That appears to be the situation confronting the PDP in Ogun.
Can PDP Still Win?
Of course, it can.
No responsible political analyst should declare an election won before the people have voted.
Politics can change dramatically. Alliances can shift. Candidates can emerge. Internal crises can weaken political parties. Voters can also surprise everyone.
But the question is not whether the PDP can win. The more important question is whether it currently has enough political weight to overcome the APC’s advantages. That is where the PDP’s challenge becomes apparent.
The 2027 Reality
The APC has something to defend.
The PDP has something to prove.
Governor Abiodun’s administration gives the ruling party a development narrative.
Yayi gives it a strong political personality.
The APC’s grassroots network gives it the machinery required to take that message into communities across Ogun.
The PDP, meanwhile, must convince voters that its alternative is better.
That is a much higher burden.
The opposition should therefore resist the temptation to mistake political excitement for electoral momentum.
The election will not be won by the loudest political declaration. It will be won by the party that successfully converts popularity, organisation, credibility and voter confidence into actual votes.
At this moment, the APC appears to have the stronger hand.
And if the current political dynamics persist, the PDP may discover that Ogun State is not ready to return to it in 2027.
The political nightmare for the PDP may not be that APC has become unbeatable.
It may simply be that the APC has given the electorate too many reasons to stay.
